The Hillary Clinton Deathwatch

[Chukwuma]

I have just downloaded a nifty little widget for my windows desktop. Courtesy of the online magazine Slate, Hillary Clinton perches atop a sinking ship while an ominous number encircled by a lifesaver indicates the current probability of her securing the Democratic nomination. As I type this, the figure is a dismal 9.3% - hardly a number to give the imperilled candidate any joy.

This was the woman who started with all the advantages. When the campaign commenced, she had the money, the endorsements and an unmistakable sense of entitlement about her. There seemed to be this unexpressed feeling that while Obama was worthy (in his way) and promising, his campaign would be eventually crushed by the Clinton juggernaut. He would, most thought, perform respectably and then gracefully concede defeat early in the process (possibly securing himself a shot at vice-presidential slot along the way).

It, of course, didn't work out that way. Barack Obama turned out to be a more formidable opponent than anyone had expected – articulate, sure-footed, graceful, and probably most significantly he came to be seen (by a significant percentage of the electorate) as a living embodiment of Change, an avatar of Hope who would rid Washington of corruption and “politics as usual”.

So now Clinton trails on every conceivable measure by which the contest might be evaluated. Her campaign is in disarray, she has won fewer states, has fewer pledged delegates, a smaller proportion of the popular vote and less campaign funds with which to fight back. The pledged delegate deficit is virtually insurmountable and so her campaign's last remaining hope is that they might somehow convince the unpledged superdelegates (in the aftermath of projected victories in Pennsylvania and West Virginia) to swing her way in defiance of the regular delegate count. Stranger things have happened.

Unfortunately (and I'm sure Clinton herself realises this) even if she does manage to miraculously secure the democratic nomination she is almost certainly going to alienate the core group of die-hard Obama supporters who would feel with reason that their candidate had been robbed. She would be crippled going into a national election and McCain would win easily. Her being selected democratic presidential candidate, while highly unlikely, is still possible – but a path from her present position to the White House does not exist.

This is something Hillary must understand, something that, over the course of the next few weeks she will have to bring herself to accept, standing there on the prow of her sinking ship. The iceberg hit a long time ago and now there is no saving her. Say your goodbyes, Hillary, get in your life boat and paddle away.